STL Home Buyer Journey
George Kindler
13 Years Of Real Estate Experience At Your Fingertips
Last updated October 13, 2026
It’s the question most first-time buyers ask me, and there’s no blanket answer. The right time depends on your budget, your price range, how hard you want to compete and whether you also have a house to sell. Here’s how I think about it, with 2026 St. Louis County sales behind it.
From 2,864 single-family sales across 22 St. Louis County-area school districts, January 1 through October 5, 2026. “Above asking” means above the original list price. See the tables ↓
It depends on you more than the calendar. Your budget, your price range, how hard you want to compete and whether you also have a house to sell decide the best timing. In 2026, 53% to 55% of homes that closed in May through July sold above asking, compared with 30% in January. Timing by situation ↓
Not if you’re waiting for less competition. When rates fall, the buyers who were waiting tend to come back at the same time, so competition and prices can rise with them. Decide on the payment you can afford now, not on a rate forecast.
Fall and winter bring less competition; spring and summer bring more homes and more competition. In 2026, 30% to 36% of January and February sales went above asking, and 38% to 41% in August and September, versus 53% to 55% in May through July.
Not across the board. The median 2026 sale closed at 100% of its original list price and 46% sold above it. Discounts showed up on homes that sat: those on the market 61 to 90 days sold at a median 93.4% of their original price, and those past 90 days at 88%.
If you need to sell before you can buy, list at the end of winter, around February, when prices and competition start to pick up; you catch some of the demand without carrying two mortgages, and you can buy quickly as spring inventory comes on. If you’re buying first, buy in spring, when there’s more inventory, and sell in summer, when demand is lower than spring but stronger than winter.
“Is this a good time to buy?” is the question most first-time buyers ask me. Mortgage rates are higher than many buyers would like, affordability is tight, and the headlines keep predicting what the Federal Reserve will do next. So a lot of buyers have moved to the sidelines, waiting for a signal.
The problem is that they’re not alone. Thousands of other buyers are watching the same headlines and waiting for the same rate cuts.
Most buyers assume lower rates make buying easier. Sometimes the opposite happens. When rates fall, payments improve, more buyers qualify and more decide it’s finally time to move. Showings rise, and so does competition. The same rate cut that helps one buyer helps thousands of them.
Think back to every spring market in recent memory. The market didn't suddenly become cheap. Mortgage rates didn't collapse overnight. Inventory didn't double. Yet competition exploded. Why? Because buyer confidence changed. More buyers felt comfortable moving forward. That confidence created more showings, more offers, and more competition.
Want to run the numbers yourself? The STL Home Buying Power Calculator shows what you can afford based on your income, debt and down payment, before rates change anything.
That’s why I don’t give blanket advice on timing. I’m strategic about it, and the strategy depends on where you’re starting.
If your debt-to-income is near its limit and you’re shopping where homes sell fast, don’t fight the spring crowd. Wait for fall, or look at listings that have sat. In 2026, homes that took 61 to 90 days to sell closed at a median 93.4% of their original price, and those past 90 days at 88%. Against their reduced prices, they still closed at 97% to 98%, so the discount is mostly in the price cuts already made.
If you qualify comfortably and your price range has more homes to choose from, fall or spring both work. Fall gives you less competition; spring gives you more homes to compare.
The more must-haves on your list, the fewer homes fit, and the more you’ll compete for each one. Narrow your list to what truly matters and you’ll have more houses to choose from in any season. For offers when you do compete, see how to compete without overpaying.
If you have to sell before you can buy, list at the end of winter, around February. Prices and competition start to pick up then, so you catch some of the demand without being on the hook for two mortgages, and you’re ready to buy quickly when more inventory comes on in spring. If you’re buying first and selling second, buy in spring, when there’s more inventory, and sell in summer: buyer demand isn’t as strong as spring, but it’s stronger than winter. Should you sell first or buy first? →
Single-family sales across 22 St. Louis County-area school districts, by closing month. October is left out because only part of the month is in the data.
| Closed | Sales | Median price | Sold above asking | Median days on market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 185 | $273,000 | 29.7% | 26 |
| February | 191 | $270,000 | 35.6% | 18 |
| March | 233 | $350,000 | 48.5% | 13 |
| April | 338 | $307,500 | 45.0% | 7 |
| May | 332 | $364,500 | 54.8% | 7 |
| June | 468 | $379,500 | 54.9% | 6 |
| July | 407 | $334,000 | 52.8% | 7 |
| August | 372 | $341,550 | 41.1% | 16 |
| September | 310 | $302,750 | 38.1% | 17 |
The same 2026 sales, grouped by sale price.
| Sale price | Sales | Sold above asking | Median days on market | Had a price cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under $200,000 | 716 | 25.3% | 25 | 33.9% |
| $200,000–$249,999 | 250 | 40.4% | 12 | 25.2% |
| $250,000–$299,999 | 286 | 52.1% | 8 | 15.0% |
| $300,000–$399,999 | 490 | 55.9% | 6 | 16.7% |
| $400,000–$499,999 | 332 | 55.4% | 6 | 19.0% |
| $500,000–$749,999 | 436 | 54.6% | 6 | 19.0% |
| $750,000 and up | 354 | 54.5% | 5 | 15.0% |
The same 2026 sales, grouped by days on market.
| Days on market | Sales | Median sale vs. original price | Median sale vs. final price | Sold above asking |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–7 | 1,309 | 103.7% | 103.7% | 74.4% |
| 31–60 | 508 | 97.4% | 99.0% | 24.8% |
| 61–90 | 186 | 93.4% | 98.1% | 11.8% |
| 91 or more | 204 | 88.0% | 97.0% | 5.4% |
Another reason buyers feel confused is because inventory numbers don't tell the entire story. Technically, inventory has improved compared to the extreme lows of previous years. Yet many buyers still feel like they have limited choices. How can both things be true? Because there are really two housing markets operating at the same time.
These are the homes buyers actually want. Updated kitchens. Updated bathrooms. Solid roofs. Modern systems. Little or no deferred maintenance. These homes continue to attract attention quickly because buyers value certainty. In many parts of South County, Oakville, Affton, Mehlville, Arnold, and St. Charles County, move-in-ready homes can still generate multiple offers when priced correctly.
The average price of move-in-ready homes in St. Louis varies dramatically by area — from under $220K in Lemay to over $600K in Kirkwood. Understanding that spread is the starting point for every buyer's search.
This is where much of the inventory growth is occurring. Older roofs. Older HVAC systems. Outdated interiors. Deferred maintenance. Many buyers are simply unwilling or unable to take on major projects in today's environment. As a result, these homes often sit longer, experience price reductions, and contribute to rising inventory counts. This is why housing inventory in St. Louis can increase while desirable homes still feel competitive.
Many buyers read headlines suggesting inventory is improving and assume finding a home should be easier. Then they start touring. Suddenly they're competing for the same move-in-ready properties as everyone else. The inventory numbers are technically correct. But buyers don't purchase statistics. They purchase homes. And the condition of those homes matters.
Today, buyers are often paying premiums for certainty rather than square footage. A newer roof. A newer HVAC system. An updated kitchen. A home that doesn't immediately require $20,000 to $40,000 in repairs. That certainty has become extremely valuable. Understanding what $300K, $450K, and $600K actually buys in today's St. Louis market is one of the most useful things a buyer can do before starting a search.
Mortgage rates matter. Inventory matters. Prices matter. But the right time to buy is the one that fits your budget, your price range and your plans, not the one everyone else is waiting for. Sometimes the biggest risk isn’t buying before everyone else. It’s buying with everyone else.
Competition
Under $200,000. In 2026, 25% of those sales went above asking, the median took 25 days and 34% had a price cut. From $250,000 up, 52% to 56% sold above asking in a median 5 to 8 days.
Ask your agent to pull homes that have been on the market 30 to 60 days or more, and homes with a price cut. In 2026, homes past 60 days sold at a median 88% to 93% of their original price.
Your plan
It depends on how long you’ll stay and what you’d pay either way. Run the rent-versus-buy comparison →
Enough for the down payment and closing costs, plus six months of house payments in reserve, regardless of what your loan program requires. Down payment and reserves →
Most buyers focus on mortgage rates. The bigger question is how rising prices, rent payments, inventory quality, and future competition affect your situation.
Both are designed specifically for St. Louis buyers.
